According to the most recent U.S. sales data from NPD, Apple's Mac sales ended the June quarter down 10 percent from the same period one year ago though momentum from WWDC's MacBook lineup refresh could carry growth of 5 percent.
Despite the dip in domestic sales numbers, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster notes that data for the month of June shows a bump of 1 percent and expects Mac growth of 5 percent, which is in line with Street estimates. He goes on to say that Apple's reported Mac growth outpaced NPD's five percent contraction estimates by 12 points in the March quarter to end up seven percent year over year.
Munster believes that sales momentum seen as a result of Apple's Mac lineup refresh at WWDC in early June, which bumped specs of core products like the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, in June will carry over into the "back to school" season. The refresh, lead by the new MacBook Pro with Retina display, resulted in a per NPD Mac growth of negative 23 percent in May to up one percent in June.
The analyst sees iPhone sales as the real story for the June quarter and expects 28 to 29 million units sold compared to more conservative buy side consensus of 25 to 27 million.
"Regardless of the June number, we believe focus will shift to the iPhone 5, which we expect in October," Munster writes.
Performance of Apple's iPod line was down 21 percent year-to-year according to NPD data and is in line with Munster's model of 6.3 million unit sales, down 16 percent from 2011. Street estimates have iPod growth down 16 percent from the year ago period.
Overall, Apple is estimated to bring in $37.1 billion in revenues for the June quarter, up from 2011's $28.5 billion.
Munster reiterates an overweight stock rating on strong sales of Apple's upcoming next-generation iPhone.